WeeklySA_AdminSHIFTS: Western missteps in Africa are creating an opening for Russia to deepen its influence…
By William Decourt and Spenser Warren
Recent protests against International Monetary Fund (IMF)-imposed austerity measures have rocked several African states.
Kenya, a long-time partner of the United States and a key contributor to UN peacekeeping operations in Haiti, experienced violent clashes between government security forces and anti-austerity protestors over tax hikes in a controversial finance bill.
Simultaneously, many protesters saw Kenyan engagement in Haiti as footing the bill for American security interests while ordinary Kenyans struggled to make ends meet. Soon after, similar protests against IMF measures spread to Nigeria.
Analysts and locals are concerned that spreading protests may threaten stability across Africa. Citizens of other countries continue to voice their displeasure with the political and economic status quo through protest (in Mozambique) and at the ballot box (in Botswana).
IMF loans come with significant stipulations, including reforms to financial systems and governance. Critics of these conditions frequently malign the IMF as a violator of sovereignty. Changes to economic and governing models, combined with high debts and economic stress, increase the costs of everyday products and diminish purchasing power across the continent.
To many ordinary citizens, the West is benefiting from the fruit of African resources while hindering Africans’ access to the global economy. Publics in these countries demand alternatives to IMF funding, protesting governments to oppose IMF-imposed austerity.
Youth, an increasingly important demographic, are especially active. Many of these young people are college-educated but fail to secure adequately paid employment in skilled industries. The informal economy is growing but increasingly separated from formal and international economies.
IMF austerity measures are driving the continent to economic crisis and protest that may have lasting effects anathema to US foreign policy and the liberal international order. Some already see China as a viable alternative, although public opinion of Chinese influence is mixed.
Elsewhere, faded Cold War memories make Russia a relatively unknown economic and political alternative. So, while recent Western actions in Africa have put long term relationships at risk, Russia is slowly increasing its influence on the continent.
In fact, the Kremlin has already taken action and is engaged in the politics surrounding the various debt crises in African nations. African countries owe debts to multiple international actors, including Russia. However, Moscow has forgiven debts owed by many of these countries, coupling debt relief with additional economic benefits, including an influx of grains and energy resources. It has also deepened defence cooperation with several African countries. This cooperation often includes contracts for weapons sales and the deployment of irregular military units, including the Wagner Group.
Diplomatic actions such as the above have led some protestors to see Russia as a viable alternative to IMF funding and partnerships with the US and Europe. In a visual representation of this phenomenon, protestors have been seen waving Russian flags at mass gatherings across Africa. Russia appears to receive the greatest support in the Sahel, where governments have failed to curb political instability and deliver on economic development promises.
Publics in the region were already angry with the continued postcolonial military presence of France, and Russia took advantage.
Mass publics are not the only actors seeking alternatives, ruling elites also see Russia as an attractive partner. Russian defence cooperation and the presence of irregular forces bolster these regimes in the face of increasing civilian protests over poor governance or human rights.
Still, Russia has not yet made the gains it could. The war in Ukraine is hurting Africans and contributing to economic stress as global grain prices have skyrocketed. Some perceive Russia as exacerbating the problems of failed governance through its use of Wagner Group formations to back corrupt officials, protect corporate interests, and bolster unpopular governments. Russian interest in the region is also less significant than in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, or the Arctic, where Russia has more proximate strategic, economic, and political goals.
Rather than rushing in, Russia’s economic presence in Africa is slowly advancing Moscow’s goals on the international stage. When Russia sought to undermine financial, technological, and energy sanctions from the West as a result of its invasion of Ukraine, it turned to Africa to find new consumers for food products, energy and arms.
Already, in the wake of the invasion, only half of the continent voted to condemn Russia. Such voting patterns at the UN indicate greater support for Russia in Africa than in other regions around the world, even if distrust of Russia remains high in some parts of the continent.
Forecasted crises could increase Russian influence on the continent as well. Shocks generated by the African debt crisis could become a proximate cause for geopolitical and geo-economic shifts. Rapid demographic changes and disastrous climate events (e.g., droughts and floods) exacerbate existing economic and migratory challenges.
Since the tentacles of Russian economic and security influence, as well as misinformation, are already present in Africa, such future crises could pull multiple African states further into Russian orbit, and away from Western countries and institutions.
Further alignment of African states with Russia would have several drawbacks. Russia would discourage democratisation and use security assistance to bolster dictators across the continent. Environmentally sustainable development is also likely to be hampered. Russia may increase the extraction of natural resources in environmentally damaging ways.
Additionally, Russian energy exports will be oil and gas, eroding the already significant investment and progress in green energy development many African political economies have made.
As Western missteps create openings for Russia to gain a foothold in Africa, they also set the stage for other global powers to capitalise on the vacuum. Chinese-built infrastructure in Africa also contributed to debt burdens, but unlike Western approaches tied to IMF austerity measures, China is recalibrating its strategy.
By shifting to smaller projects with lower debt exposure and promoting green energy development overseas, China positions itself as a more appealing partner. This strategy not only bolsters China’s domestic solar and EV industries but also enhances its soft power by responding to local economic needs.
Moreover, as Western policy blunders alienate African publics and governments, both Russia’s and China’s influence may grow. Russia’s gains in the region could indirectly strengthen China’s position by fostering broader scepticism of Western-led systems, aligning African leaders more closely with Beijing’s geopolitical goals, including its stance on Taiwan.
Africa is a burgeoning continent. One in four humans will be African by 2050. If the US and Europe pass on opportunities to engage with a continent of emerging green development powers and an increasingly educated demographic bulge, Western policies will undermine their own power and influence in the international order. Russia’s quiet increase in trade and security assistance offers an established alternative.
Meaning ultimately, both Russia and China, may play the long game, gaining incremental support from a region of one billion people at a time. – Africa is Country
* William Decourt is a PhD candidate at the University of Indiana and studies African politics, governance, and international influence on the continent from authoritarian powers. Spenser Warren is a postdoctoral fellow in technology and international security with the University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation in Washington, DC, where his current research focuses on Russian security policy and its global competition with the United States
Comment
SUPPORT COPS TO FIGHT CRIME
The slight decrease in community-reported serious crimes during the period July to September this year could be viewed as a positive result probably due to the intensifying collaboration between the police and communities although much still needed to be done to fight the scourge of crime in the country.
Releasing the latest crime statistics from the 17 community-reported crime categories this week, Police Minister Senzo Mchunu, conceded that despite these positive results, their strategy was to persist in doubling their efforts to fight crime and to make sure every citizen was safe. A lot however, still needed to be done to stem the tide of the ever-increasing acts of crime that had ravaged the country.
Cases of murder had decreased by 5,8 % – from 10516 during the same period last year to 10191 this year and sexual offences by 2,5 %, robbery with aggravating circumstances by 8,8 % and contact crimes by 3,0 %. There was however still cold comfort for most communities, especially in the townships, who claimed they were still subjected to rampant crime in their areas.
While police are always on the receiving end for various reasons including that they were too slow to react to emergencies, it is worth noting that their job was a dangerous one where they had become prey to ruthless criminals who act with impunity. For the record, a total 39 police officers were murdered while on duty between April 2023 and May 2024. This is shocking.
These are people who are supposed to protect, uphold and enforce the laws of this country. And yet they have now become enemies of those who want to commit acts of terror without facing any consequences. The police efforts to fight this scourge have, unfortunately, been made even more difficult by some of their own colleagues who were in cahoots with brazen criminals. Many have even been arrested.
The latest crime statistics have obviously been achieved partly through the commitment of those officers who were still dedicated to serving their country. We encourage them to continue with their good work.
The Police Minister has also shown his commitment to fight crime with all the resources at his disposal. He has, amongst others, shown this dedication through his team which recently cracked several mass murder cases around the KwaZulu-Natal area where the suspects were swiftly traced and arrested. These suspects have since appeared in court to avoid the delay in meting out justice.
With the festive season around the corner and with crime expected to increase as people go on holiday, the police are urged to double their efforts in their fight against this plague. Communities must also help the police – some of whose work is seldom noticed – and who were striving to restore stability in the country.
It is worth noting that police officers who felt valued and appreciated were more likely to stay committed to their jobs. Our men and women in blue need our support.
